Is Undermining Iran an Arab or European Interest?

By Patrick Seale


	Nobel Peace Laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told Al-Arabiya television on June 20 that he would resign in the event of an attack on Iran (AFP photo DDP/Axel Schmidt).

THE UNITED States and Israel are seeking to damage Iran’s economy in order to force it to give up enriching uranium, which both see as a challenge to their regional hegemony. Israel—itself a major nuclear power—claims that Iran’s nuclear program poses an “existential threat” to it, which must at all costs be stopped, if necessary by force.

This confrontation poses a serious dilemma for the Arab world, and especially for Saudi Arabia and its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Is a clash between Iran and the U.S./Israel bloc in the Arab interest? Or could it well be, on the contrary, a very grave danger?

The United States has put great pressure on international banks and energy companies to stop trading with the Iran, so as to starve its oil and gas industries—the main motors of its economy—of investment and technology. As early as 1996, the U.S. Congress passed a law punishing any major investment in Iran.

In addition to U.N. sanctions, America’s own unilateral sanctions severely restrict access by Iran to U.S. equipment, technology and contractors.

These pressures have scored some notable successes. In May, Royal Dutch Shell and Spain’s oil company, Repsol, both pulled out of—or at least have delayed investment in—one of Iran’s biggest gas projects, the development of South Pars, the world’s largest gas field, located in the Gulf between Iran and Qatar.

Israel’s argument—which is little short of blackmail—is that if the international community fails to stop Iran’s nuclear activities, Israel will have no choice but to strike. Its surprise attack last September on an alleged Syrian nuclear site near Deir ez-Zor could be interpreted as a warning to Iran of the long-range capability of the Israeli air force—and also of U.S. tacit approval for such aggressive Israeli methods.

Meanwhile, Israel is attempting to pressure Austria and Switzerland to cancel or postpone major gas deals they have made with Iran. The Swiss company, EGL, has signed a $42 billion gas supply contract with Iran, due to begin in 2011, while Austria’s energy company, OMV, has reached agreement with Iran on a 23 billion euro investment in South Pars in exchange for liquid natural gas.

It is hardly surprising that Iran has reacted angrily to the U.S./Israeli campaign of sabotage and intimidation. U.S.-Iranian relations have sunk to a new low—with a constant danger of a clash between their naval forces in the Gulf—while President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has redoubled his hostile rhetoric against Israel.

Iran is bound to respond forcefully to any U.S./Israeli attack. Such a clash could set the whole Gulf on fire, with catastrophic consequences for the Arab Gulf states. Indeed, some experts believe that Israel sees an interest, not only in undermining Iran, but also in bringing to a halt the spectacular development of the Gulf, which is rapidly emerging as a new pole of Arab strength and influence.

Several Arab countries are understandably worried at Iran’s increasing influence in the Middle East, especially in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. But there are also clear signs that countries like Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Algeria, and even Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s powerhouse, have no wish to be drawn by the United States into a confrontation with Iran.

It is significant that, rather than quarrelling with Iran, King Abdallah bin Abdulaziz has extended an invitation to Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of Iran’s Expediency Council, to attend an International Islamic Dialogue Conference in Riyadh.

The Europeans, in turn, are watching the U.S.-Iranian confrontation with great anxiety. If Iran is prevented from developing its huge gas reserves, said to be the second largest in the world, Europe will be more than ever dependent on Gazprom, Russia’s gas giant, which is close to the Kremlin, employs 400,000 people, and accounts for nearly 10 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP). Gazprom already supplies between 25 percent and 50 percent of gas supplies to Germany, France and Italy; between 50 percent and 75 percent to Austria, Turkey, Hungary and Poland; and between 80 percent and 100 percent to Greece, Finland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

Many experts believe that Europe needs access to Iranian gas to free itself from excessive dependence on Russian gas, which might, in a crisis, turn into a strategic liability.

Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, and the author of The Struggle for Syria; also, Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East; and Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire. Copyright © 2008 Patrick Seale. Distributed by Agence Global.